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Rabu, 06 Juli 2011

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI VOLUME IMPOR KEDELAI INDONESIA

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI VOLUME IMPOR KEDELAI INDONESIA

RINGKASAN
POPY ANGGASARI. Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Volume Impor Kedelai Indonesia. (Dibimbing oleh SRI MULATSIH).
Peningkatan pendapatan dan pertumbuhan penduduk yang terjadi di Indonesia menyebabkan semakin bertambah cepatnya permintaan pangan. Ratarata peningkatan GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Indonesia adalah sebesar 5,19 persen tiap tahunnya dan rata-rata pertumbuhan jumlah penduduk Indonesia adalah sebesar 2,34 persen tiap tahunnya. Peningkatan permintaan pangan terjadi baik dari segi kuantitas maupun kualitas. Kuantitas pangan yang diminta secara langsung akan mengalami peningkatan, sedangkan kualitas pangan yang diminta berubah dari produk-produk pangan penghasil energi menjadi produk-produk pangan penghasil protein. Melihat kandungan gizi yang dimiliki, kedelai mempunyai potensi yang besar sebagai sumber utama protein bagi masyarakat Indonesia. Permintaan kedelai relatif tinggi untuk berbagai kebutuhan domestik, seperti untuk konsumsi manusia, industri bahan olahan pangan maupun pakan ternak. Di sisi lain pertumbuhan produksi dalam negeri relatif rendah sehingga belum mampu untuk memenuhi pertumbuhan permintaan dalam negeri. Untuk memenuhi excess demand yang terjadi didalam negeri maka pemerintah melakukan impor. Indonesia memiliki ketergantungan impor kedelai yang cukup tinggi dikarenakan jumlah kedelai yang diimpor lebih banyak daripada produksi dalam negeri. Pada tahun 2006, 60 persen kebutuhan kedelai dalam negeri dipenuhi melalui impor. Oleh karena itu, tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis perkembangan produksi, konsumsi dan impor kedelai serta menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi volume impor kedelai di Indonesia.
Metode yang digunakan untuk menganalisis perkembangan produksi, konsumsi dan impor kedelai adalah metode analisis deskriptif. Metode yang digunakan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi volume impor kedelai di Indonesia adalah metode analisis linear berganda dengan menggunakan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS) program eviews 4.1. Dalam penelitian ini, analisis regresi linier berganda digunakan untuk melihat pengaruh variabel produksi kedelai domestik, harga kedelai domestik, harga kedelai luar negeri, nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dollar Amerika dan dummy tarif impor sebesar 10 dan 5 persen terhadap volume impor kedelai ke Indonesia. Selama kurun waktu 1997 hingga 2006, secara umum produksi kedelai domestik cenderung mengalami penurunan dengan hasil yang relatif rendah. Penurunan produksi tersebut disebabkan oleh penurunan luas panen kedelai tiap tahunnya dan rendahnya nilai produktivitas. Sementara itu, pertumbuhan permintaan kedelai cukup pesat selama beberapa tahun terakhir dan relatif tinggi, terutama untuk kebutuhan konsumsi yang digunakan untuk keperluan rumah tangga dan bahan baku industri. Hal tersebut memaksa Indonesia untuk melakukan impor. Dari tahun ke tahun impor kedelai relatif tinggi, sekitar 60 persen kebutuhan dalam negeri dipenuhi dengan impor. Volume impor kedelai secara nyata dipengaruhi oleh harga kedelai domestik, harga kedelai luar negeri, nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dollar Amerika dan dummy penetapan tarif impor sebesar 10 persen.
Untuk meningkatkan produksi kedelai domestik agar Indonesia tidak terlalu bergantung pada impor adalah melalui peningkatan luas areal panen kedelai dan peningkatan produktivitas. Hal tersebut dapat dilakukan dengan beberapa program, seperti mengeksplor dan membuka lahan baru yang cocok untuk ditanami kedelai, pembagian benih unggul dan penyuluhan teknis budidaya kedelai yang tepat dan sesuai. Setelah produksi kedelai domestik dapat ditingkatkan, maka pemerintah dapat mengatur besarnya tarif impor yang akan dikenakan agar harga kedelai domestik dapat dikontrol. Jika harga kedelai internasional tinggi, maka tarif impor dapat diturunkan dan jika harga kedelai internasional rendah, maka tarif impor dapat dinaikkan. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, penetapan tarif impor sebesar 10 persen dapat mengurangi impor. Dengan ditetapkannya tarif sebesar 10 persen, harga kedelai impor akan meningkat, hal tersebut dapat memacu minat petani kedelai untuk kembali berproduksi sehingga volume impor dapat berkurang.

STRATEGI KELUAR DARI JEBAKAN KEMISKINAN (POVERTY TRAP) DI INDONESIA

STRATEGI KELUAR DARI JEBAKAN KEMISKINAN
(POVERTY TRAP) DI INDONESIA
Ripno Juli Iswanto1), Eko Yuliasih2), Salim Abdul Azis3)
1,2,3) Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Sebelas Maret Surakarta
Jl. Ir. Sutami 36 A Kentingan Surakarta 57126
Email: is1to_034@yahoo.co.id, ekoy@uns.ac.id, nahdi_salim@yahoo.com
 
Abstrak
Tulisan ini berusaha menguraikan pengertian dari poverty trap atau jebakan kemiskinan, penyebab terjadi poverty trap di Indonesia dan strategi yang dapat diterapkan di Indonesia untuk keluar dari poverty trap ini. Metodologi penelitian yang digunakan pada kasus ini adalah analisis regresi dan simulasi dinamik yang berpijak pada teori model pertumbuhan ekonomi Solow-Swan. Variabel-variabel yang diamati meliputi tenaga kerja, modal dan tingkat teknologi yang diterapkan.
Hasil analisis ini menunjukan bahwa faktor penentu kemiskinan di Indonesia adalah rendahnya tingkat pendidikan masyarakat di Indonesia yang diakibatkan oleh minimnya alokasi dana untuk pendidikan, banyaknya tenaga pengajar yang tidak berkompeten di bidangnya, dan output yang dihasilkan masih jauh dari yang diharapkan. Dan faktor lain yang mempengaruhi poverty trap adalah ketersediaan investasi, jumlah tenaga kerja, dan hasil sektor pertanian.Model Solow-Swan memberikan dua buah hasil yaitu, pada steady-state yang sama, Negara miskin seharusnya mengalami pertumbuhan yang lebih cepat dibandingkan dengan Negara kaya dan peningkatan investasi memberikan laju pertumbuhan investasi sama dengan perpindahan ekonomi menuju steady-state yang baru.
Kata kunci: poverty trap, Solow-Swan, steady-state
1.
PENDAHULUAN
Kemiskinan pada umumnya identik dengan kondisi kekurangan sumber daya atau pemasukan (gaji). Fenomena kemiskinan itu sendiri pada hakekatnya merupakan suatu fenomena yang hadir di tengah masyarakat, bahkan sebelum manusia mengenal sejarah. Dalam penentuan standar dan batasan-batasan kemiskinan sendiripun banyak mengundang perdebatan.
Kemiskinan merupakan suatu permasalahan yang disebabkan oleh berbagai dimensi, baik dimensi ekonomi maupun sosial. Kompleksitas yang terjadi dalam fenomena kemiskinan tentunya menuntut adanya suatu analisis yang komprehensif dan lebih holistik serta diharapkan akan memberikan suatu penjelasan dan solusi yang lebih tepat dalam pengentasan kemiskinan.
Pada negara-negara berkembang, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang didapat ternyata juga dibarengi dengan munculnya permasalahan makroekonomi yang secara teori seharusnya tidak terjadi, misalnya pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi juga diikuti dengan meningkatnya jumlah pengangguran. Padahal berdasarkan teori pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi seharusnya menambah jumlah investasi-investasi baru yang gilirannya akan menyerap tenaga kerja, Wiloejo[5]. Jika dilihat dari nilai investasi pendidikan, angka 20% dari APBN nasional ternyata tidak mampu membawa negara ini kearah kemajuan. Disamping angka pengangguran yang semakin meningkat dari tahun ke tahun, jumlah lulusan yang adapun tidak berkompeten dibidangnya, sehingga membuat kualitas sumberdaya manusia Indonesia menjadi rendah. Dari semua kenyataan diataslah yang membuat negara ini tidak dapat keluar dari lingkaran setan ‘kemiskinan’.
2.
TINJAUAN PUSTAKA
2.1 Analisis Regresi Ganda
Untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap sebuah variabel dapat digunakan metode analisis regresi. Jika variabel/ faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh lebih satu digunakan regresi ganda. Pada analisis regresi variabel y atau dikatakan dependent merupakan variabel yang dipengaruhi oleh variabel-variabel bebas. Sedangkan variabel dengan merupakan variabel-variabel yang diduga mempengaruhi y
Irawan, Nur dan Astutik [7] menuliskan persamaan regresi sebagai
nnxxyβββ+++=...........110
Setelah diperoleh model regresi maka analisis dapat dilakukan mengenai pengaruh masing-masing variabel independent terhadap variabel dependent.
2.2 Persamaan Diferensial Biasa
Menurut Bellomo dan Preziosi [3], laju perubahan sebuah variabel terhadap waktu dapat dirumuskan



Dampak Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Penurunan Jumlah Penduduk Miskin


 Dampak Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Penurunan Jumlah Penduduk Miskin

Secara umum diketahui pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan indikator yang lazim dupergunakan untuk melihat keberhasilan pembangunan. Tujuan tulisan ini adalah untuk mengetahui dan menganalisis dampak pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap jumlah penduduk miskin di Indonesia. Analaisi deskriptif dan ekonometrika dilakukan unutk menelaah keterkaitan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan faktor-faktor lain terhadap kemiskinan dengan menggunakan data dari berbagai instansi seperti BPS dan BI. Kurangnya kualitas pertumbuhan ekonomi dicerminkan olah angka kemiskinan yang relatif persisten diatas 20 persen dalam kurun waktu satu dasawarsa terakhir. Jumlah penduduk miskin akibat krisis ekonomi belum berhasil dikurangi bahkan cenderung meningkat. Penyebaran penduduk miskin terpusat di Pulau Jawa dan Sumatera, terutama di perdesaan degan pertanian sebagai sumber utama pendaptan. Pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap penurunan jumlah penduduk miskin walaupun dengan magnitude yang relatif kecil, seperti inflasi, populasi, penduduk, share sektor pertanian, dan sektor industri. namun variable yang signifikan dan relatif besar pengaruhnya terhadap penurunan jumlah penduduk miskin adalah sektor pendidikan. berdsaarkan temuan-temuan tersebut kebijakan yang perlu ditempuh untuk mengurangi jumlah penduduk miskin adalah pertumbuhan yang berkualitas dan berkeadilan yang merupakan syarat keharusan. Disamping itu diperlukan pula syarat kecukupan dengan mempercepat indsutrualisasi pernaitan/perdesaan, akumulasi modal manusia, pengendalian inflasi unutk mepertahankan daya beli masyarakat, dan pengendalian secar efektif pertumbuhan penduduk terutama masyarakat miskin.

Kata kunci; pertumbuhan ekonomi, penduduk miskin

ANALISIS PENGARUH INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA, PDRB PER KAPITA, DAN JUMLAH PENGANGGURAN TERHADAP JUMLAH PENDUDUK MISKIN DI PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH

ANALISIS PENGARUH INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA, PDRB PER KAPITA, DAN JUMLAH PENGANGGURAN TERHADAP JUMLAH PENDUDUK MISKIN DI PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH

ABSTRAK Kemiskinan merupakan masalah yang dihadapi oleh semua negara di dunia, terutama negara sedang berkembang, seperti Indonesia. Kemiskinan merupakan masalah kompleks yang dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor yang saling berkaitan, antara lain tingkat pendapatan masyarakat, pengangguran, kesehatan, pendidikan, akses terhadap barang dan jasa, lokasi, geografis, gender, dan lokasi lingkungan. Jumlah penduduk miskin di Jawa Tengah relatif lebih tinggi dibanding provinsi lain di Indonesia, yaitu menempati peringkat kedua dalam hal jumlah penduduk miskin terbesar di Indonesia setelah Jawa Timur. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis bagaimana dan seberapa besar pengaruh variabel Indeks Pembangunan Manusia, PDRB per kapita, dan jumlah pengangguran terhadap jumlah penduduk miskin di Provinsi Jawa Tengah pada tahun 2008. Metode analisis dalam penelitian ini menggunakan analisis regresi linear berganda dengan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS) yang menggunakan data antar ruang (cross section) Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2008 dengan bantuan software Eviews 4.1 Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa variabel Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap jumlah penduduk miskin di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, PDRB per kapita berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap jumlah penduduk miskin di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, dan jumlah pengangguran berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap jumlah penduduk miskin di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. 
Kata kunci : Jumlah Penduduk Miskin, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM), PDRB per kapita, dan Jumlah Pengangguran




Sabtu, 04 Juni 2011

Basic Econometric Gujarati

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INEQUALITYANDUNEMPLOYMENTINAGLOBALECONOMY

INEQUALITYANDUNEMPLOYMENTINAGLOBALECONOMY


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THE WEALTH OF NATIONS by Adam Smith

AN INQUIRY INTO THE NATURE AND CAUSES OF THE WEALTH OF NATIONS
by
Adam Smith
A PENN STATE ELECTRONIC CLASSICS SERIES PUBLICATION

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Selasa, 31 Mei 2011

Indonesia and the global rise of economic, political power

Despite the complication caused by some delays and coordination matters related to the official visit of the US President Barack Obama to Indonesia, which was later postponed to June this year, the essence of the visit itself signals an important message to Indonesia and to the rest of the world.
To Barack Obama, Indonesia is not only a childhood home where he spent four happy years with family and friends, but a source of political and economic power that he needs to keep his political and economic agenda moving forward.
How could Indonesia, a country that was overlooked for almost a decade as a global forum and global influence suddenly become so important to Obama and to the US, both from political and economic standpoints?
The importance of Indonesia as having the world’s largest Muslim population nation has often been discussed in media, particularly Indonesia’s strategic position in its relation to the Middle East conflict.
The fact that Indonesia has been praised by the US as the role model where democracy and Islam prosper harmoniously adds to the list of Indonesia’s political capital in the global forum.  
Indonesia is the largest nation in ASEAN (Southeast Asian Nations), which comprises 10 Southeast Asian countries. Indonesia is also ASEAN’s largest economy with 2009 GDP at US$514 billion.
Indonesia is one of the founding nations of ASEAN together with Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines.
Since ASEAN was founded in 1967, Indonesia has always been playing important role in ASEAN. Indonesia’s former president, Soeharto, was one of the most respectful ASEAN figures.
The East Asian integration, often called ASEAN + 3, which refers to China, Japan and South Korea, now has moved further in policy implementation.
One major achievement that had integrated the region more closely is noted by the signing agreement of ACFTA in January 2010, an agreement that unites China and ASEAN economies with 0 tariff on goods and services crossing each borders.
The East Asian integration itself would bring about an integration of $12.2 trillion of world economy, with a total population of 2.1 billion people.
The integration of East Asian economies both as the Asian production platform and as the world’s growing domestic market has become much more important particularly since East Asia has proven that it can weather global recession relatively smoothly.
Asia is believed to be the source of world economic growth in the future. Led by China, the East Asian economy is projected to contribute to three quarters of 2.5 percent of world economic growth in 2010.
What unique about East Asian integration, in some extent has become a source of concern among other economies in the rest of the world, is the fact on how countries in East Asia are trading and investing between each other at a much faster pace and much larger volume than ever before.  
Although there are increasing concerns within each ASEAN nation about the decline of country’s competitiveness compared to China, the world’s largest production base is believed to also offer a huge export opportunity that could offset the decreasing competitiveness of certain industries in ASEAN countries.  
As the policy implementation is in progress, where adjustments in ASEAN economies are also taking place, we would need some more time to further evaluate how this integration would improve Asia’s economic status.
In such context, Indonesia is becoming more and more important both for the US and China.
Both countries would need to maintain their close relationships with Indonesia to secure their
economic stakes in East Asian
economy, particularly because US-China economic relations are often tenuous.
The US is China’s largest export market. In 2008 and 2009, China’s exports to the US accounted to $252.3 billion and $296.4 billion respectively.
However, China’s domestic market is well developed enough to absorb its massive production capacity if US market declines due to the economic recession.
Therefore, China needs the US to continue to import from it to assure there won’t be massive lay off workers at companies and factories in China.
The continuation of Chinese government investing in US Treasury Bonds providing the US government loans shows the complexity of US-China relations.
Today, China holds $755 billion in US government treasury bonds. The complication is increased by the US’s accusation that China is manipulating its currency to prevent the yuan from increasing while most experts believe the Chinese currency should have appreciated due to the increasing value of yuan’s real exchange rate.
The Chinese government’s effort to keep yuan stable against the US dollar is believed to have effectively maintained Chinese competitiveness in the global playing field.
With the rise of its importance among the two world economic powers, Indonesia is now entering its most important economic and political milestone in the global forum.
How Indonesia makes the most of this, given its rising role, would determine Indonesia’s position in the future, politically and economically.
As the nation at the crossroads, Indonesia should make the best of this opportunity to progress its economic and political relations with both the US and China. This progress should be real, well designed and well implemented.

Magda Safrina,
The writer is a graduate student at International Business
School, Brandeis University,
Massachusetts, US.
Selasa, 19 April 2011

Indonesia needs holistic approach to terrorism

Again and again, bombs have exploded in this country. On Friday, a suicide bomber, 31-year-old Muchammad Syarif, killed himself and wounded at least 26 people when his bomb exploded inside a mosque at Cirebon Police Headquarters in West Java. The bomb went off just as the Friday prayers were about to begin.

This latest suicide attack suggests that terrorism in Indonesia is becoming invincible and unpredictable.

Last month, book bombs were sent to various places targeting individuals. Now, the targets are not just churches, foreigners, moderate Muslims and sect members, but also mosques.

As a matter of fact, efforts to target mosques have occurred before, first at Istiqlal Mosque in Jakarta in 1999 and then at a Yogyakarta mosque in 2000.

In recent years, Indonesia has been rocked by a series of bombings staged by the regional terror network Jamaah Islamiyah, including the 2002 Bali bombings that killed 202 people.

The last was carried out by two suicide bombers who killed seven people at two luxury Jakarta hotels in July 2009.

The suicide attack on the Cirebon Police mosque reminds us that a holistic approach to terrorism is of paramount significance.

Relying too much on the state apparatus such as police to arrest the perpetrators and masterminds of this cruel assault and impose the death sentence on them is far from adequate. The approach should at least entails the following measures:

First, it is of urgent importance to pass the new intelligence bill due to public potshots at its toothlessness. Continued violence, bomb threats and suicide bombing befalling this country have been clear signs of our slow counterterrorism drive. Both the House of Representatives and the government should arrive at meeting of minds and scrap controversial points.

Monitoring, for instance, is necessary only to gather information on suspicious individuals and designate particular networks or organizations as terrorist groups when conditions are met.

The state intelligence agency must not lose its fight against both physical and symbolic terrorism campaigns. Additional funds for intelligence agencies for their work will help the government work more effectively.

However, the control of the intelligence organization by the House and civil society is no compromise. Ignoring arbitrary and extensive monitoring of targeted individuals or groups means an act of infringement upon one’s privacy, which is unconstitutional.

The scrutiny of citizens’ phone conversations, email correspondence and articles posted on Internet community boards, by police, the prosecution and the state spy agency should not be intensified just because a series of bombings has rocked this country recently.

Second, the police and state spy agency must not look for scapegoats and become distrustful of Muslim groups, but work with them instead.

The terror attack on a mosque strongly indicates that Islam is not compatible with terrorism, but is being hijacked.

Defeating terrorism is not possible using only a traditional security approach.

All steps must be taken, including the curbing of dangerous ideologies that help spread the message of terrorism to hearts and minds.

Hence, antiterrorism efforts must involve civil society groups, in the context of resisting the spread of terror ideology.

Many groups in Indonesia that are vulnerable to such ideologies can be infiltrated and changed only by organizations like the NU, Muhammadiyah and other Muslim organizations, rather than the police.

While acknowledging that Islam is not terrorism and terrorism is not Islam, longer-term solutions can be oriented toward ostracizing radicalism and promoting tolerance.

Strong and continued rejection of such ideas in mosques and schools should be carried out extended to all places of worship.

Mosques and Islamic boarding schools must be made front lines in the battle against terrorism. Didn’t Prophet Muhammad say that any Muslims inciting hatred against non-Muslims were not his ummat (followers)?

Third, it is crucial for police to get groups of people involved in combating acts of terrorism. The police and universities may hold regular training and meetings involving youth organizations, school teachers and neighborhood leaders on how terrorists act and move within society.

The public might be introduced to a “nomad strategy”, which is used by terrorists to keep themselves in disguise.

People may take initiatives to be more vigilant in monitoring their areas for suspicious activities through intensifying their community-based security systems (Siskamling) to deter terrorists from establishing base camps.

However, it is not necessarily about being aware of new faces in their neighborhoods, but also old residents acting suspiciously or limiting their interactions with their neighbors.

Fourth, increasing the prosperity of the people is major key to fighting terrorism. The longer-term fight against terrorism, however, will be to continue economic growth and to improve living standards.

If the poor and lower income groups, which are the main recruiting pools for terrorists, see that they have a bright future and hope, they will be less likely to be attracted to the militant doctrine. Poverty is a weakness that terrorists are only too eager to exploit.

It is no secret that suicide bombers are generally from a low-income background. Besides executing the hard approach of using the security to combat terrorists, the soft approach of offering a better future for the poor is equally important in efforts to root out the menace of terrorism in this country.

The writer, a graduate of University of Canberra, teaches politics and culture at Andalas University, Padang.

Govt Aims High With Economic Development Pla

Indonesia expects to become the world’s 12th-largest economy by 2025 through stimulating domestic growth with its planned economic corridor scheme and programs to improve regional connectivity.

A document from the Coordinating Ministry for the Economy obtained by the Berita Satu Media Group on Monday showed that the government has targeted boosting gross domestic product to between $3.8 trillion and $4.5 trillion in 2025 from $700 billion in 2010, when the country was the 17th-largest economy.

Per capita income will also be raised to between $13,000 and 16,100 in 2025 from last year’s $3,005, the document said.

The “Master Plan for the Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia’s Economic Development [MP3EI] through 2025” designates six regions as main economic corridors. Total investment of Rp 3,348 trillion is needed for infrastructure development as well as economic activities, it says.

The government expects state-owned enterprises to pour money in the promoted regions, but it also called on the private sector to participate.

Vice President Boediono told reporters on the sidelines of a two-day meeting of government and business representatives at the Bogor State Palace that the government would offer incentives for mining as well as manufacturing activities in the six priority regions.

“We will ease requirements for the flow of goods so we can link domestic economic activity to global trade” he said.

Sumatra will be developed as an agricultural and energy center, while Kalimantan will see a focus on mining and energy and Sulawesi and North Maluku on agriculture and fisheries. Bali and East and West Nusa Tenggara will focus on tourism and supporting national food self-sufficiency, Papua and Maluku will focus on natural and human resources and Java on industry and services.

Java island will get the bulk of investment at Rp 1,079 trillion, followed by Kalimantan with Rp 703.9 trillion, Papua-Maluku with Rp 602.2 trillion and Sumatra with Rp 545.7 trillion.

The government vowed to tackle the infrastructure bottlenecks that hamper economic growth, including by speeding up the revision of building-related laws and curbing conflicting regulations at the central and regional levels. It said it would also provide more fiscal incentives and ease business licensing.

The document says the government expects to “connect remote areas with better infrastructure in order to share the benefits of development with more people.”

Regarding infrastructural constraints, the document said  none of the 25 key seaports across the nation could serve as a global hub while the main international airport, Soekarno-Hatta in Cengkareng, Tangerang, was already overcrowded.

The government plans at least two global marine hubs and two air hubs to provide better gateways to the eastern and western parts of Indonesia.
Minggu, 17 April 2011

22 countries with the highest GDP nominal in 2050

Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen Lecture 3-26-2010

Indonesia Economic Outlook 2011

ndonesia’s Economic Outlook 2010 & 2011: Better than initially projected

Domestic economic growth will reach 5.5-6.0% in 2010 and increase to 6.0-6.5% in 2011. Therefore, Indonesia’s economic prospects are better than initially projected. “On the back of strong domestic demand, improvements will principally stem from externalities in line with the global economic recovery, as evidenced by solid export growth since Quarter-IV 2009,” explained the Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Hartadi A. Sarwono.

The global economic recovery is clearly visible from a number of economic indicators in industrialized countries (United States and Japan) as well as in Asia (China and India). In the United States, a recovery is evidenced by stronger private consumption coupled with a rise in production. Meanwhile, Japan began to experience positive economic growth in the final quarter of 2009.  In China and India, indications of an economic recovery were clearly visible from the high rate of economic growth. Such improvements will have a positive impact on trade partner countries, including Indonesia.

The global economic recovery will bolster the external sector of Indonesia’s economy. Non-oil/gas exports from Indonesia in Quarter-IV 2009 recorded expansive growth, reaching 17%. The rise in exports did not only emanate from mining and agricultural commodities, but also from exports of manufacturing commodities. This precipitated stronger-than-expected growth in the industrial and trade sectors.  Meanwhile, import activities increased slightly as a result of the surge in exports, however, at a lower level. The current account is expected to run a larger surplus in Quarter-I 2010 than originally projected.   Furthermore, foreign investor confidence in Indonesia’s economic outlook is improving as reflected by a surplus in capital and financial transactions. With the range of developments mentioned, this year of 2010 as a whole will witness a greater surplus in the BoP than initially projected.  “There remains 1 more notch until Indonesia reaches investment grade, which will bolster foreign investor confidence and boost investment in Indonesia”, explained Hartadi with the Fitch sovereign rating for Indonesia improving to BB+ from BB recently.

In addition to stronger export performance, private consumption has also indicated an improvement. This was confirmed by increases in a number of consumption indicators such as imports of consumption goods, automobile and motorcycle sales, and retail sales. In future, household consumption growth is expected to rise further in accordance with higher income as a result of the income effect from increased exports and consumer confidence.

Regarding prices, inflationary pressures will remain insignificant, at least in Semester-I 2010. Inflation during the first two months of 2010 has remained low.  Relatively controllable inflation is also reflected by the decline in core inflation from 4.43% (y-o-y) in January 2010 to 3.88% (y-o-y) in February 2010. The rise in headline inflation at the beginning of 2010 was proven to be temporary, in particular due to the hike in rice process, and is not expected to rise again for the next few months in line with the upcoming harvests across the country. The possibility of a rise in the basic electricity tariff, if realized, is not expected to trigger any large impact on inflation if applied to the larger customers. Holistically, inflation is projected to remain within its target corridor of 5%+1% in 2010 and 2011. “I am convinced that the rise in domestic economic activity will not exceed the level of potential output and, therefore, not spur excessive inflationary pressures fundamentally”, stressed Hartadi.


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